Fig. 18
Panel a: posterior distributions of the orbital period Pb of the injected planet for some selected mock datasets. The histogram in green corresponds to a dataset for which Pb has been recovered with high precision and accuracy. The posterior in blue corresponds to a case with a very accurate but less precise retrieved Pb, and the posterior in red corresponds to a mock dataset for which the orbital period was not recovered. Panel b: distribution of the Pb, retrieved/Pb, inj ratio between the median best-fit orbital period and the injected value for each simulated dataset. Panel c: same as for panel b, but using the values of Pb corresponding to the MAP estimates. Panel d: distribution of the significance of the retrieved best-fit values Pb for the S32 sub-sample described in the text. The significance is expressed as the ratio between the median of the posterior and the corresponding lower uncertainty for each simulated dataset. Panel e: distribution of the ratio between the recovered and injected semi-amplitude Kb of the planetary RV signal for the 32% of the simulated datasets for which an accurate and precise estimate of Pb was recovered (S32 sample). Panel f: results of a model comparison analysis. The plot shows the distribution of the difference
-
, calculated for the 100 mock RV datasets, between the Bayesian evidence of the model including one sinusoid (i.e. one planet on a circular orbit) and the model with only a GP-term. The model including one planet is marginally more significant (
-
2) only in two cases, one being that corresponding to the posterior of Pb
in green shown in panel a.
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