Simulated light curve draw from the model posterior compared to a differential light curve measured by Spitzer. The blue line shows simulated flares (first part in Equation (13)) drawn from the flare-model posterior. The brown line shows the full model light curve including the quiescence emission and observational noise, and the black line shows a Spitzer observation. The curves are vertically offset for clarity, but the y axis has the same linear scale for both curves.