General relativistic effects and the near-infrared variability of Sgr A* - II. A systematic approach to temporal asymmetry

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Table B.1.

Model parameters, priors, and posteriors for the MA model and semi-physical Sgr A* model.

parameters	prior	posterior	notes
MA model
α	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [1, 1000]	$218_{- 13.4}^{+ 14.3}$ $218^{+14.3}_{-13.4}$	exponent of innovation
f_scale	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [ − 100, 100]	$22 . 4_{- 1.1}^{+ 1.3}$ $22.4^{+1.3}_{-1.1}$	flux density normalization (mJy)
τ₁	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [1, 100]	$14 . 8_{- 1.4}^{+ 0.4}$ $14.8^{+0.4}_{-1.4}$	rise time (minutes)
τ₂	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [1, 100]	$13 . 8_{- 1.4}^{+ 1.3}$ $13.8^{+1.3}_{-1.4}$	fall time (minutes)

Sgr A*-model
i	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [5, 90]	$32 . 7_{44.3}^{21.7}$ $32.7^{21.7}_{44.3}$	inclination (degrees)
τ_1,int	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [10, 35]	$23 . 6_{16.3}^{30.5}$ $23.6^{30.5}_{16.3}$	intrinsic rise time (minutes)
τ_2,int	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [10, 35]	$18 . 7_{12.6}^{24.8}$ $18.7^{24.8}_{12.6}$	intrinsic fall time (minutes)
r_f	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [5, 300]	$10 . 1_{4.8}^{15.5}$ $10.1^{15.5}_{4.8}$	flare rate parameter (Poisson)
μ_amps	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [0.1, 1000]	$525_{313}^{738}$ $525^{738}_{313}$	amplitude distribution parameter 1 (inv. γ)
σ_amps	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [0.1, 1000]]	$6259_{3968}^{8549}$ $6259^{8549}_{3968}$	amplitude distribution parameter 2 (inv. γ)
σ_measurement	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [0.05, 0.6]]	$0 . 16_{0.12}^{0.20}$ $0.16^{0.20}_{0.12}$	measurement noise (mJy)
κ_O.U.	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [0.01, 0.1]]	$0 . 06_{0.05}^{0.08}$ $0.06^{0.08}_{0.05}$	exp. Ornstein Uhlenbeck parameter 1
θ_O.U.	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [0.1, 0.4]]	$0 . 6_{0.35}^{0.9}$ $0.6^{0.9}_{0.35}$	exp. Ornstein Uhlenbeck parameter 2
σ_O.U.	uniform 𝒰 ∈ [0.001, 0.1]]	$0 . 08_{0.07}^{0.10}$ $0.08^{0.10}_{0.07}$	exp. Ornstein Uhlenbeck parameter 3

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