Six-year SPIRou monitoring of the young planet-host AU Mic

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Volume 700 (August 2025)

A&A, 700 (2025) A227

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Table 1

MCMC results for the four studied cases (no planet, b+c, b+c+e, and b+c+e+d).

Parameter	No planet	b+c	b+c+e	b+c+e+d	Prior
θ₁ (m s⁻¹)	${37.6}_{- 3.7}^{+ 4.1}$ $\[$37.6_{-3.7}^{+4.1}$\]$	${38.0}_{- 3.7}^{+ 4.1}$ $\[$38.0_{-3.7}^{+4.1}$\]$	${39.1}_{- 4.0}^{+ 4.4}$ $\[$39.1_{-4.0}^{+4.4}$\]$	${39.0}_{- 4.0}^{+ 4.5}$ $\[$39.0_{-4.0}^{+4.5}$\]$	mod Jeffreys (σ_RV)
θ₂ (d)	4.8654 ± 0.0015	4.8650 ± 0.0015	4.8652 ± 0.0014	4.8652 ± 0.0014	Gaussian (4.86, 0.1)
θ₃ (d)	$167_{- 14}^{+ 15}$ $\[$167_{-14}^{+15}$\]$	$166_{- 13}^{+ 14}$ $\[$166_{-13}^{+14}$\]$	$169_{- 14}^{+ 15}$ $\[$169_{-14}^{+15}$\]$	$168_{- 14}^{+ 15}$ $\[$168_{-14}^{+15}$\]$	log Gaussian (log 160, log 1.5)
θ₄	0.33 ± 0.03	0.32 ± 0.03	0.35 ± 0.03	0.35 ± 0.03	Uniform (0,3)
θ₅ (m s⁻¹)	12.0 ± 0.6	12.3 ± 0.6	11.9 ± 0.6	12.0 ± 0.6	mod Jeffreys (σ_RV)
K_b (m s⁻¹)		${2.8}_{- 0.8}^{+ 1.1}$ $\[$2.8_{-0.8}^{+1.1}$\]$	${2.7}_{- 0.8}^{+ 1.1}$ $\[$2.7_{-0.8}^{+1.1}$\]$	${2.8}_{- 0.8}^{+ 1.1}$ $\[$2.8_{-0.8}^{+1.1}$\]$	mod Jeffreys (σ_RV)
P_b (d)		8.463446	8.463446	8.463446	Fixed from Mallorquín et al. (2024)
BJD_b (2 459 000+)		−669.649175	−669.649175	−669.649175	Fixed from Mallorquín et al. (2024)
M_b (M_⊕)		${6.3}_{- 1.8}^{+ 2.5}$ $\[$6.3_{-1.8}^{+2.5}$\]$	${6.1}_{- 1.8}^{+ 2.5}$ $\[$6.1_{-1.8}^{+2.5}$\]$	${6.3}_{- 1.8}^{+ 2.5}$ $\[$6.3_{-1.8}^{+2.5}$\]$	Derived from K_b, P_b and M_⋆
K_c (m s⁻¹)		${4.1}_{- 0.9}^{+ 1.1}$ $\[$4.1_{-0.9}^{+1.1}$\]$	${3.9}_{- 0.9}^{+ 1.1}$ $\[$3.9_{-0.9}^{+1.1}$\]$	${3.8}_{- 0.9}^{+ 1.1}$ $\[$3.8_{-0.9}^{+1.1}$\]$	mod Jeffreys (σ_RV)
P_c (d)		18.859018	18.859018	18.859018	Fixed from Mallorquín et al. (2024)
BJD_c (2 459 000+)		−657.776513	−657.776513	−657.776513	Fixed from Mallorquín et al. (2024)
M_c (M_⊕)		${12.1}_{- 2.7}^{+ 3.3}$ $\[$12.1_{-2.7}^{+3.3}$\]$	${11.6}_{- 2.7}^{+ 3.3}$ $\[$11.6_{-2.7}^{+3.3}$\]$	${11.3}_{- 2.7}^{+ 3.3}$ $\[$11.3_{-2.7}^{+3.3}$\]$	Derived from K_c, P_c and M_⋆
K_e (m s⁻¹)			${5.9}_{- 1.2}^{+ 1.5}$ $\[$5.9_{-1.2}^{+1.5}$\]$	${5.8}_{- 1.2}^{+ 1.5}$ $\[$5.8_{-1.2}^{+1.5}$\]$	mod Jeffreys (σ_RV)
P_e (d)			33.11 ± 0.06	33.10 ± 0.06	Gaussian (33.1, 1.0)
BJD_e (2 459 000+)			118.5 ± 1.4	118.6 ± 1.4	Gaussian (118, 8)
M_e (M_⊕)			${21.1}_{- 4.3}^{+ 5.4}$ $\[$21.1_{-4.3}^{+5.4}$\]$	${20.7}_{- 4.3}^{+ 5.4}$ $\[$20.7_{-4.3}^{+5.4}$\]$	Derived from K_e, P_e and M_⋆
K_d (m s⁻¹)				${1.0}_{- 0.5}^{+ 0.9}$ $\[$1.0_{-0.5}^{+0.9}$\]$	mod Jeffreys (σ_RV)
P_d (d)				12.73596	Fixed from Wittrock et al. (2023)
BJD_d (2 459 000+)				−659.44219	Fixed from Wittrock et al. (2023)
M_d (M_⊕)				${2.6}_{- 1.3}^{+ 2.3}$ $\[$2.6_{-1.3}^{+2.3}$\]$	Derived from K_d, P_d and M_⋆
$χ_{r}^{2}$ $\[\chi_{\mathrm{r}}^{2}\]$	21.9	19.6	18.4	18.3
rms (m s⁻¹)	11.0	10.4	10.1	10.1
log ℒ_M	878.1	890.5	902.0	902.3
log BF = Δ log ℒ_M	−12.4	0.0	11.5	11.8

Notes. For each case, we list the recovered GP and planet parameters with their error bars, as well as the priors used where relevant. The last four rows report the $χ_{r}^{2}$ $\[\chi_{\mathrm{r}}^{2}\]$ , the rms of the best fit to the RV data, the associated marginal logarithmic likelihood, log ℒ_M, and the marginal logarithmic likelihood variation, Δ log ℒ_M, relative to the reference case (b+c).

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