Statistical correlation analysis. Top panel: Correlation between the flux-weighted tilt coefficient multiplied by total flux (Φ>T_A) for the nth solar cycle and the observed average polar flux at the end of the same cycle. This correlation is estimated using the sunspot database without incorporating stochasticity. Bottom panel: Correlation between the Φ>T_A and two quantities at the end of the same solar cycle (n): (i) the dipole moment simulated by SPhoTraM simulation (left x-axis, red circles), and (ii) the observed average polar flux (right x-axis, magenta squares). These correlations are estimated after incorporating stochasticity in the sunspot emergence statistics. The gray dashed lines in both panels represent the best-fit linear regressions.