Comparison of the probability of having at least one SN event as a function of distance, between the case where the Orion clusters’ updated membership lists are used (main analysis; blue squares) and the case using the original memberships from Hunt & Reffert (2023) (orange triangles). The left panel shows the total probability from all clusters, while the right panel shows the probabilities for ASCC 20 (top), OCSN 61 (middle), and OCSN 56 (bottom).