Fig. 8

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Left: detection probability map for TESS as a function of orbital period and planetary mass. Colors indicate the probability of detecting a transit signal, modeled as a logistic function of S/N with a threshold of 7.3. Known USP systems (TOI-1238, GJ 367, and LP 791-18) detected by TESS are shown for reference. Right: detection probability map for CARMENES as a function of orbital period and planetary mass. The model assumes 3 m/s radial velocity precision and 100 observations per target, with a logistic function centered on a S/N of 10. The USP system TOI-1238, which was confirmed by CARMENES, is overplotted. While CARMENES has strong sensitivity to higher-mass planets, the simulated low-mass USP planets fall below the detection threshold, underscoring the challenges of RV confirmation for this population.
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