Tidal disruptions of rubble piles: The case of Phobos

¹ Université Côte d’Azur, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, Nice, France
² The University of Tokyo, Department of Systems Innovation, School of Engineering, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan

^★ Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Received: 5 November 2025
Accepted: 9 January 2026

Abstract

Context. Many small satellites in the Solar System have sub-synchronous orbits, meaning their orbits are decaying due to tidal dissipation. Unless they have substantial material strength, they will eventually tidally disrupt before reaching their planet’s surface.

Aims. We studied the fate of rubble-pile satellites as they migrate inward, with a particular focus on the case of Phobos.

Methods. We used a combination of analytic estimates and numerical simulations to determine the failure mode and tidal disruption distance of a Phobos-like satellite, as a function of its shape and cohesive strength.

Results. Both analytically and numerically, we identify a regime for satellites with low cohesive strengths whereby their surface can be tidally stripped without undergoing internal failure. Our numerical simulations demonstrate that Phobos will be destroyed beyond 2 Mars radii if it has a bulk strength similar to those estimated for small bodies recently visited by spacecraft.

Conclusions. Based on our results and some additional arguments, we suggest that previous studies on the fate of Phobos have overestimated its strength, and therefore underestimated its tidal disruption distance. We also speculate that if Phobos undergoes some tidal stripping, its ultimate fate may be determined by runaway collisional erosion rather than a pure tidal disruption. However, the ultimate tidal disruption distance for Phobos will depend on its unknown internal structure and bulk material properties, which will be constrained by JAXA’s Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) mission and its IDEFIX rover. These results have implications for theories about the origin and evolution of the Martian moons and for tidal disruptions of other small, irregularly shaped satellites.