Micro-tidal disruption events in young star clusters

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Volume 707 (March 2026)

A&A, 707 (2026) A217

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Table B.2

Summary of the expected detection rate of BH micro-TDEs (Γ) for different instruments and peak luminosity models.

	M_max	M_peak	z_max	f_sky	Γ(z_max) fiducial (yr⁻¹)	Γ(z_max) low density (yr⁻¹)	Γ(z_max) high density (yr⁻¹)
Peak luminosity: fiducial

ZTF	20.8 (g-band)	−14.24	0.023	0.360	${1.55}_{1.12}^{1.87}$ $Mathematical equation: $1.55_{1.12}^{1.87}$$	${0.47}_{0.32}^{0.62}$ $Mathematical equation: $0.47_{0.32}^{0.62}$$	${2.38}_{1.70}^{2.91}$ $Mathematical equation: $2.38_{1.70}^{2.91}$$
					[0.39–2.20]	[0.09–0.97]	[0.49–3.78]
ULTRASAT	22.5 (NUV)	−15.65	0.090	0.170	${101.93}_{74.08}^{122.25}$ $Mathematical equation: $101.93_{74.08}^{122.25}$$	${30.46}_{20.90}^{40.87}$ $Mathematical equation: $30.46_{20.90}^{40.87}$$	${155.46}_{111.60}^{190.70}$ $Mathematical equation: $155.46_{111.60}^{190.70}$$
					[22.99–143.62]	[6.71–64.25]	[33.25–242.58]
LSST	25.0 (g-band)	−14.44	0.157	0.480	${542.99}_{390.09}^{652.61}$ $Mathematical equation: $542.99_{390.09}^{652.61}$$	${162.99}_{111.78}^{217.52}$ $Mathematical equation: $162.99_{111.78}^{217.52}$$	${828.03}_{595.09}^{1017.10}$ $Mathematical equation: $828.03_{595.09}^{1017.10}$$
					[104.28–767.05]	[35.73–336.49]	[184.52–1310.42]

Peak luminosity: pessimistic

ZTF	20.8 (g-band)	−11.74	0.007	0.360	${0.05}_{0.04}^{0.06}$ $Mathematical equation: $0.05_{0.04}^{0.06}$$	${0.02}_{0.01}^{0.02}$ $Mathematical equation: $0.02_{0.01}^{0.02}$$	${0.08}_{0.06}^{0.09}$ $Mathematical equation: $0.08_{0.06}^{0.09}$$
					[0.01–0.07]	[0.00–0.03]	[0.02–0.12]
ULTRASAT	22.5 (NUV)	−13.30	0.032	0.170	${4.36}_{3.15}^{5.25}$ $Mathematical equation: $4.36_{3.15}^{5.25}$$	${1.31}_{0.90}^{1.75}$ $Mathematical equation: $1.31_{0.90}^{1.75}$$	${6.64}_{4.79}^{8.16}$ $Mathematical equation: $6.64_{4.79}^{8.16}$$
					[1.02–6.15]	[0.27–2.75]	[1.52–10.58]
LSST	25.0 (g-band)	−11.74	0.049	0.480	${15.49}_{11.13}^{18.69}$ $Mathematical equation: $15.49_{11.13}^{18.69}$$	${4.70}_{3.24}^{6.27}$ $Mathematical equation: $4.70_{3.24}^{6.27}$$	${23.75}_{17.28}^{29.21}$ $Mathematical equation: $23.75_{17.28}^{29.21}$$
					[3.34–22.06]	[0.88–9.60]	[5.44–37.67]

Peak luminosity: optimistic

ZTF	20.8 (g-band)	−16.94	0.075	0.360	${58.91}_{42.75}^{71.01}$ $Mathematical equation: $58.91_{42.75}^{71.01}$$	${17.81}_{12.26}^{23.81}$ $Mathematical equation: $17.81_{12.26}^{23.81}$$	${90.05}_{64.17}^{110.52}$ $Mathematical equation: $90.05_{64.17}^{110.52}$$
					[13.62–83.78]	[3.62–35.90]	[20.87–141.24]
ULTRASAT	22.5 (NUV)	−19.24	0.399	0.170	${9321.98}_{6797.74}^{111228.68}$ $Mathematical equation: $9321.98_{6797.74}^{111228.68}$$	${2816.14}_{1903.86}^{3739.90}$ $Mathematical equation: $2816.14_{1903.86}^{3739.90}$$	${14247.35}_{10202.77}^{17498.69}$ $Mathematical equation: $14247.35_{10202.77}^{17498.69}$$
					[2121.04–13317.87]	[578.95–5925.67]	[3179.24–22220.49]
LSST	25.0 (g-band)	−18.63	0.819	0.480	${78372.14}_{56965.63}^{94510.30}$ $Mathematical equation: $78372.14_{56965.63}^{94510.30}$$	${23526.09}_{16267.55}^{31481.31}$ $Mathematical equation: $23526.09_{16267.55}^{31481.31}$$	${119282.33}_{85956.96}^{146771.87}$ $Mathematical equation: $119282.33_{85956.96}^{146771.87}$$
					[16897.43–110365.66]	[4154.54–49032.33]	[24539.70–187595.76]

Notes. The expected detection rate of BH micro-TDEs, Γ, for three different instruments/surveys (with their observing bands indicated in parentheses) are based on their maximum redshift z_max at which events with peak luminosity M_peak are detectable. The number of expected detections per year follows a Poisson distribution with mean given by Equation 7, which depends on the detection rate, sky coverage ( f_sky), and detection efficiency. The reported value corresponds to the median of the expected distribution, with subscript and superscript denoting the central 68% confidence interval, and the range in square brackets indicating the 99.7% confidence interval. The fiducial, low density and high density columns refer to the results obtained assuming the correspondent production efficiency in Tab. B.1. The three peak luminosity scenarios refer to the models presented in Kremer et al. (2023) for different efficiency of mass outflow during the accretion on the BH (pessimistic: high efficiency, lower peak luminosity, optimistic: low efficiency, higher peak luminosity).

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