Letter to the Editor

Data-driven magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the initiation of a coronal mass ejection with multiple stages

¹ Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven Celestijnenlaan 200B B-3001 Leuven, Belgium
² School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University Nanjing 210046, People’s Republic of China
³ Institute of Physics, University of Maria Curie-Skłodowska Pl. Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej 5 20-031 Lublin, Poland
⁴ LIRA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, UPMC, Université Paris Diderot 5 place Jules Janssen 92190 Meudon, France
⁵ LUNEX EMMESI Institut, SBIC Kapteyn straat 1 Noordwijk 2201 BB, The Netherlands

^★ Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Received: 8 December 2025
Accepted: 9 February 2026

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary drivers of adverse space-weather events, yet their initiation and onset prediction remain insufficiently understood due to the complexity of the magnetic topology and physical processes in real solar source regions. Using a fully observational-data-driven magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we successfully reproduced the initiation of a CME originating from the super active region 13663, with only a one-minute time lag between the flare peak in observations and the velocity peak of the rising flux rope in the simulation. Moreover, the eruptive structure exhibits a multi-stage kinematic evolution: an initial slow acceleration, a plateau at a nearly stationary height, and a subsequent impulsive acceleration. These stages correspond to torus instability, the downward tension force exerted by the overlying toroidal field, and fast magnetic reconnection, respectively. Our results highlight the inherently multistage nature of CME initiation in real events. In configurations with strong overlying toroidal fields, the downward toroidal-field-induced tension force can suppress the rise of the flux rope and produce a plateau phase at a nearly stable height, even when torus instability occurs. In contrast, the subsequent fast magnetic reconnection beneath the flux rope can drive the impulsive eruption more effectively. The close agreement between the observed and simulated peak times over one minute demonstrates the strong potential of our data-driven model for predicting CME onset.