The BINGO project

X. Cosmological parameter constraints from HI intensity mapping lognormal simulations

¹ Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo – C.P. 66318, CEP: 05315-970 São Paulo, Brazil
² Department of Astronomy, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
³ School of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
⁴ ASTRON, The Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, Oude Hoogeveensedijk 4, 7991 PD Dwingeloo, The Netherlands
⁵ Department of Physics and Electronics, Rhodes University, PO Box 94 Grahamstown 6140, South Africa
⁶ Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisão de Astrofísica, Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010 – São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
⁷ Universidade Estadual da Paraíba, Rua Baraúnas, 351, Bairro Universitário, Campina Grande, Brazil
⁸ Departamento de Física, Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Natureza, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, CEP 58059-970 João Pessoa, Brazil
⁹ Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO), Nandan Road 80, Shanghai 200030, China
¹⁰ State Key Laboratory of Radio Astronomy and Technology, 20A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
¹¹ Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, Department of Physics & Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
¹² Unidade Acadêmica de Física, Univ. Federal de Campina Grande, R. Aprígio Veloso, 58429-900 Campina Grande, Brazil
¹³ Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos, SCS, Qd. 9, Lote C, Torre C S/N, Salas 401 a 405, 70308-200 Brasília, DF, Brazil
¹⁴ Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Física, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, 70910-900 Brasília, DF, Brazil
¹⁵ Center for Gravitation and Cosmology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 224009, China
¹⁶ School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
¹⁷ Unidade Acadêmica de Engenharia Elétrica, Univ. Deferal de Campina Grande, R. Aprígio Velos, 58429-900 Campina Grande, Brazil

^★ Corresponding authors: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Received: 31 May 2025
Accepted: 22 January 2026

Abstract

Context. Building on the transformative success of optical redshift surveys, the emerging technique of neutral hydrogen (HI) intensity mapping (IM) offers a novel probe of large-scale structure (LSS) growth and the late-time accelerated expansion of the Universe.

Aims. We present cosmological forecasts for the Baryon acoustic oscillations from Integrated Neutral Gas Observations (BINGO) project, a pioneering HI IM experiment, quantifying its potential to constrain the Planck-calibrated lambda-cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology and extensions to the w₀w_aCDM dark energy model.

Methods. For BINGO’s phase 1 configuration, we simulated the HI IM signal using a lognormal model and incorporated three dominant systematics: foreground residuals, thermal noise, and beam resolution effects. Using Bayesian inference, we derived joint constraints on six cosmological parameters (Ω_bh², Ω_ch², 100θ_s, n_s, ln10¹⁰A_s, and τ_r) alongside 60 HI parameters (bⁱ_HI, Ωⁱ_HIbⁱ_HI) across 30 frequency channels.

Results. Our results demonstrate that combining BINGO with the Planck 2018 Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) dataset tightens the confidence regions of cosmological parameters to ∼40% the size of those from Planck alone, significantly improving the precision of parameter estimation. Furthermore, BINGO constrains the redshift evolution of HI density and delivers competitive measurements of the dark energy equation of state parameters (w₀, w_a).

Conclusions. These results demonstrate BINGO’s potential to extract significant cosmological information from the HI distribution and provide constraints competitive with current and future cosmological surveys.