Left: Image of active region AR11261 in AIA channel 171, close before the occurrence of a M9.3 flare on 30 July 2011 (SOL2011-07-30T02:04). Other active regions (AR11263 & AR11260) are close by, potentially increasing the ambiguity of the model. Middle: Estimated survival curves as the time series approaches the event (yellow to red). A trend is visible. Right: Lifetime showing a decreasing trend starting around 48 hours before the flare. However, at the time of the event, the mean lifetime is still as high as 30 hours.