Left: Image of active region AR11169 in AIA channel 171, just before the occurrence of an M4.2 flare on 14 March 2011 (SOL2011-03-14T19:30). Middle: Estimated survival curves as the time series approaches the event (yellow to red). A clear trend is visible, showing the ability of the model to capture the evolving active region before a flare. Right: Mean lifetime curve extracted from the collection of survival curves as we approach the event. The orange curve represents a version of the blue mean lifetime prediction passed through a Gaussian smoothing kernel. The dip around 180 h corresponds to a C6.0 flare.