Left: Image of active region AR11432 in AIA channel 171, just before the occurrence of an M2.8 flare on 14 March 2012 (SOL2012-03-14T15:08). Middle: Estimated survival curves as the time series approaches the event (yellow to red). In contrast to the example displayed in Fig. 6, the model is visibly struggling to capture the timing of the flare. Right: Mean lifetimes extracted from the survival curves. There is no visible trend in the results, and outliers and fluctuations are more dominant. This is an example of the model failing.